Early Cycle
Mid-cycle
Late-cycle
Recession
Characteristics of business cycle
Credit still easy to get.
Inventories expanding.
Employment and wages improving.
Economic momentum.
Sectors expected to outperform
Consumer Disc
Energy
Financials
Technology
Characteristics of business cycle
Hours worked increase as businesses begin to recover.
GDP growth shifts from negative to positive.
Credit is easy to get as banks are eager to lend.
Sectors expected to outperform
Consumer Discretionary
Financials
Real Estate
Characteristics of business cycle
Growth is positive but decelerating
Tight labour market as the economy is fully employed.
Inflation picks up as wages and inventories grow.
Credit becomes more expensive.
Sectors expected to outperform
Utilities
Consumer Defensive
Energy
Characteristics of business cycle
Businesses slash jobs and inventories.
Consumer spending drops.
Earnings drop.
Interest rates drop.
Sectors expected to outperform
Technology as investors anticipate the next recovery.