Executive Summary
Navigating Federal Policy
What Alberta businesses need to know
Alberta businesses are seeking to understand how changes in federal government policy, particularly those outlined in the Liberal platform and the recent Speech from the Throne on May 27, 2025, may impact their business post-election.
The government has signalled several key areas for near-term attention, including shifting trade relationships with the U.S. and other nations, the push for reduced internal trade barriers, and measures aimed at easing the cost of living and stimulating the housing market.
For Alberta's energy sector, it will be crucial to navigate developing environmental regulations and also identify opportunities to expand market access for oil and gas, while expanding petrochemicals, clean energy, and Carbon Capture, Utilization and Storage (CCUS). The agricultural industry is expected to see continued support for supply management, alongside investments in modernization and market diversification. The real estate sector can anticipate new financial measures designed to drive ambitious goals for increasing housing supply. Across diversified industries, federal initiatives aim to boost innovation and entrepreneurship.
Accordingly, Alberta businesses are proactively assessing these shifts, identifying both potential challenges and emerging opportunities, and leveraging strategic partnerships.
Context
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Key Takeaways
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Economic Background
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Looking Ahead
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Sector-Specific Insights
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Context
The 67-page Liberal platform document, coupled with recent media coverage and statements from Prime Minister Carney, provides a foundational understanding of the government's intended policy direction.
While the Speech from the Throne on May 27th will offer further clarity on immediate priorities, it's crucial to acknowledge that stated intentions are subject to the complexities of execution, potentially leading to delays or modifications.
Key Takeaways: Anticipated Short-Term Priorities
U.S. Trade
Economy
Cost of Living
U.S. Trade
- The government will seek to negotiate an end to existing tariffs on Canadian industries, prioritizing a comprehensive and beneficial "right deal" over a swift resolution. This will go hand in hand with a “new security relationship,” with measures to improve border security to be implemented by the summer.
- It will also pursue and cultivate trade opportunities with reliable trading partners and allies around the world.
- This proactive diversification of markets will be crucial in building resilience and expanding growth potential for Canadian businesses across various sectors.
U.S. Trade
Economy
Cost of Living
Economy
- The federal government has committed to eliminating all federally controlled barriers to internal trade and mobility by July 1, 2025. The estimated cost of internal trade barriers in Canada is as high as $200 billion per year.
- This initiative aims to foster a more unified Canadian market, streamlining interprovincial commerce and the movement of skilled workers.
- Additionally, the government intends to collaborate with provinces and Indigenous communities to identify projects of national significance, with the goal of expediting regulatory decision-making processes for these key developments. This includes establishing agreements with provinces within 6 months to ensure there is “one project, one review” for applications.
- The government will create a Major Federal Projects Office with a goal of reducing the time to provide a regulatory approval from five years to two.
- The government will double the Indigenous Loan Guarantee Program from $5 billion to $10 billion, enabling more Indigenous communities to become owners of major projects.
U.S. Trade
Economy
Cost of Living
Cost of Living
- The government plans to introduce several measures aimed at easing affordability concerns and stimulating the housing market.
- A proposed 1% reduction in the lowest marginal tax rate - effective July 1st, 2025 - is projected to provide savings of up to $825 per year for dual-income families.
- Additionally, the plan to eliminate the GST for first-time homebuyers purchasing homes up to $1 million seeks to reduce one of the financial burdens of homeownership. It will also lower the GST on homes between $1 million and $1.5 million.
- The government plans to work with provinces and municipalities to halve development charges on multi-family homes, with the goal of delivering cost reductions for new construction.
- Finally, the government has committed to create a new government entity - "Build Canada Homes" - to provide $25 billion in financing for pre-fabricated home construction.
Economic Background: A Shifting Landscape
- While Alberta's economy is expected to perform relatively well, trade uncertainty has created headwinds for the province. Oil prices have declined, putting downward pressure on capital budgets.
- Despite rapid population growth and elevated unemployment, skills shortages persist in certain areas - particularly in the skilled trades.
- Pervasive policy uncertainty is hindering business investment and dampening economic growth, especially in the energy sector. This sector is seeking clearer federal guidance, specifically on how the government plans to fulfill "energy superpower" promises and streamline project approvals.
- Domestic trade barriers within Canada are a significant drag on economic growth, and their removal could boost GDP per capita by about 4% over the long term according to the International Monetary Fund.
Looking Ahead: Strategic Adaptation in a Shifting Policy Landscape
- Preparing your Alberta business for the evolving federal policy environment demands a proactive and adaptable approach.
- This includes diligently understanding the potential implications of new regulations, trade dynamics, and economic shifts across all sectors.
- Prioritizing robust financial management, such as maintaining strong cash flow and balance sheets, is crucial for building resilience.
- Businesses should also actively explore new opportunities, including diversification into emerging fields and the cultivation of alternative markets, while leveraging available resources and partnerships to mitigate potential risks.
- Implementing thorough financial analysis and planning, including sensitivity analysis, will be essential for navigating economic uncertainties and ensuring sustained success in this dynamic landscape.
Sector-Specific Insights: Impacts and Opportunities from the Liberal Platform
The May 27, 2025 Speech from the Throne, Liberal Platform, and recent statements from Prime Minister Carney in the media and House of Commons provide a foundational understanding of the government's intended policy direction.
Energy
Agriculture
Real Estate
Diversified Industries
Energy
- Alberta's energy sector is navigating a period of significant transformation driven by evolving federal environmental policies. Legislation, such as Bill C-48 (the West coast tanker ban), Bill C-59 (environmental performance reporting), and Bill C-69 (major project approvals) has created headwinds for oil and gas investment.
- Based on current government policy, the impact of the industrial carbon tax and the impending emissions cap will further intensify, directly affecting profitability through increased operational costs and potentially constraining future expansion.
- Concurrently, while the federal government has expressed support for energy corridors and faster pipeline approvals, the potential for pipes in the ground in the short to medium term remains uncertain.
- This disconnect creates a challenging environment for investment in traditional energy infrastructure.
- Despite these considerable pressures, the federal focus on a green transition presents concrete opportunities for Alberta businesses.
- Investment tax credits targeting clean energy technologies - coupled with the First and Last Mile Fund for critical mineral projects - offer tangible pathways for diversification and growth into emerging sectors.
- Furthermore, the federal government's active support for CCUS technology, highlighted by Prime Minister Carney's acknowledgment of the Pathways project, provides a crucial avenue for sustainability within the existing energy framework.
- However, the successful advancement of such initiatives hinges on establishing clear and economically viable capital cost recovery models in collaboration with both federal and provincial governments.
- Navigating this complex landscape, shaped by both regulatory challenges and emerging opportunities, demands a strategic and proactive approach.
- Recognizing the tangible impacts of current legislation while exploring and capitalizing on new avenues for growth will be essential for building a resilient energy future for Alberta.
Energy
Agriculture
Real Estate
Diversified Industries
Agriculture
- The federal platform for agriculture balances support for supply management with investments in modernization.
- A core commitment remains the protection of supply management, particularly for dairy, poultry, and eggs.
- However, while the platform pledges to exclude dairy from trade negotiations, past experiences with CUSMA and the political dynamics of key dairy-producing states in the US suggest this sector may still face future trade-related pressures.
- Key proposals include permanently expanding the AgriStability Program's revenue protection to $6 million per farm to enhance producers' safety net against external shocks.
- Strategic investments aim to bolster long-term resilience through a $200 million Domestic Food Processing Fund to increase processing capacity, a $30 million boost to the Agriculture Clean Technology Program for sustainable practices, and expanded financial support via the Canadian Agricultural Loans Act.
- Additionally, a $30 million top-up to the AgriMarketing Program underscores the government's commitment to export diversification and internal trade.
Energy
Agriculture
Real Estate
Diversified Industries
Real Estate
- The Liberal Housing Plan aims to address supply-demand imbalances across Canada’s real estate sector, with initiatives like Build Canada Homes (BCH) and Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) programs, potentially offering opportunities for increased homebuilding.
- The Liberal plan to accelerate housing construction through pre-fabrication presents a significant opportunity for Alberta; As a long-standing manufacturing hub for pre-fab housing, particularly for the natural resources sector, areas like Nisku, Acheson and Southern Alberta are well-positioned to benefit from this initiative given that the necessary manufacturing infrastructure is largely in place.
- However, the ambitious goal to double construction rates raises concerns about potential skilled trades shortages, which could increase project costs, especially since Alberta is already grappling with labor supply challenges that an aggressive building program could exacerbate. The government's Apprenticeship Grant program aims to accelerate the training of skilled tradespeople, potentially mitigating this issue.
- The government’s commitment to reducing red tape in development and construction is welcome news for real estate clients, as expediting approvals and permits will allow projects to become shovel-ready sooner, thus responding to demand pressures.
Energy
Agriculture
Real Estate
Diversified Industries
Diversified Industries
- The Liberal platform outlines several initiatives designed to invigorate innovation, investment, and entrepreneurship across Canada, presenting distinct opportunities for Alberta businesses.
- Notably, the proposed extension of flow-through shares to sectors like artificial intelligence, quantum computing, biotechnology, and manufacturing could significantly benefit Alberta's burgeoning tech industry, facilitating crucial capital raising for growth and development.
- Furthermore, the introduction of a "patent box regime," which aims to reduce corporate income tax on profits from domestically developed and patented R&D, could help address Canada's historical weak innovation performance, particularly in the area of business R&D and commercialization.
- In a move welcomed by the business community, the proposed capital gains tax increase and changes to stock options have been reversed.
- This reversal, coupled with the continued support of initiatives like the Lifetime Capital Gains Exemption (LCGE) and the Canadian Entrepreneurs’ Incentive (CEI), aims to foster a more favorable environment for entrepreneurship and investment.
- The platform seeks to introduce apprenticeship grants to address the critical need for skilled tradespeople in Alberta's construction, energy, and manufacturing sectors.
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